The automotive industry undoubtedly nds itself in a phase of major change. There are technological mega forces like autopilot cars, connectivity or powertrain electrication as well as general mega forces like new entrants, digitisation of the supply chain and cost pressure and globalisation which are carving the shape of the future auto ecosystem.
The vision of Automotive 4.01 describes the evolution of the automobile from the origins of Karl Benz or the Ford Model T over to the post WWII cars and the respective development of the Automotive 2.0 and nowadays the move towards Automotive 2.5 as a connected car. Automotive 3.0 portrays the midterm vision of the “car as a digital app” combined with pervasive electric charging networks, autonomous driving capabilities and urban on-demand services. Automotive 4.0 will take this even one step further and will feature the defnitive change in redening the industry as one of “mobility” as opposed to “automobiles”. Within 20 years, there will be tens of millions of autonomous vehicles. The ability to call for a vehicle (with or without driver) on demand may create a new model of shared ownership or access to vehicles and services that take the current utilisation of cars from 5-10% to 75% of the hours in a day. In order to stay relevant, tier 1 suppliers will have to align with this evolutionary process and will have to develop an enhanced set of core traits resulting in what we believe will be the “automotive 4.0 supplier”.
While it is beyond dispute that the main constituents of this change are the car manufacturers, it is often neglected that these forces will drive a bull-whip effect throughout the entire value chain. The next ones to be hit upstream are the tier 1 suppliers. These players not only account for a high share of automotive innovation but even more so they are the hidden enablers of ecosystem change. The playing field of the tier 1 suppliers comprises a plethora of categories and covers the full spectrum of components and modules which go inside a car: exterior, interior, chassis, powertrain and electrics / electronics (E/E). We are clustering and evaluating the automotive suppliers based on these five primary market segments.
This study will analyse the implications of the transformational forces, identify the burning platforms and it will provide recommendations for the future positioning of automotive suppliers with regard to their primary market segment. Each mega trend will be explored considering its effect on the tier 1’s corporate strategy, product portfolio, organisation, processes, IT landscape, manufacturing capabilities and employee skills.
Transformation of the retail landscape including direct, digital sales channels or the evolution of new transportation models driven by generation Y preferences are further trends impacting the industry. Due to only limited direct impact on the automotive supplier landscape – yet certainly on OEMs and their downstream value chain – we are not including the latter mega forces in this point-of-view and focus on such trends which have significance for automotive tier 1s.